Who will be the next Philippine president?


As authorized by the survey sponsor, for the information of the public, Social Weather Stations is disclosing the results of a survey item on the Best Leader to Succeed Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in 2010 commissioned by Ms. Avic Amarillo in behalf of Senator Manuel Villar, Jr. in the SWS survey fielded over April 16-May 6, 2009, which were referred to in the news item, “SWS: Race narrows down to Villar, Noli, Mar”, in the June 18, 2009 issue of the Philippine Star. (Ms. Amarillo is the Media Officer of Senator Manuel Villar, Jr.)

The SWS May 2009 survey found that Senator Manny Villar, Vice-President Noli De Castro, and Senator Mar Roxas are the people’s top recommended successors to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010.

The survey question asked was, “Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 10, 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.”[Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names].

To that question, 29% named Sen. Villar, 21% named Vice-Pres. De Castro, and 18% named Sen. Roxas.

They were followed by Sen. Francis Escudero (15%), Sen. Loren Legarda (14%), former Pres. Joseph Estrada (13%), and Sen. Panfilo Lacson (12%).

No list of names was provided to prompt the respondents.

The survey found that 2% mentioned Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay and Pres. Gloria Arroyo, while 1% mentioned Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Sen. Richard Gordon, Sen. Francis Pangilinan, and MMDA Chairperson Bayani Fernando.

One out of five (20%) could not give an answer, and 9% had no one to recommend.

Compared to February 2009, the mentions rose by 3 points for Sen. Villar and Sen. Roxas, by 2 points for Pres. Arroyo, and by 1 point for Mayor Binay.

The mentions went down by 11 points for Sen. Legarda, by 8 points for Sen. Escudero, by 6 points for Vice-Pres. De Castro, by 3 points for Sen. Defensor-Santiago, by 2 points for Sen. Lacson, and by 1 point for Sen. Estrada and Sen. Revilla.

The question wording has been exactly the same in the past eight surveys shown in Table 1.

Survey Background

The surveys of September and December 2007, March and June 2008, and February 2009 had sample sizes of 1,200 adults, for error margins of ±3%. The September and December 2008 surveys had sample sizes of 1,500 adults, for error margins of ±2.5%. The April 16-May 6 survey had a sample size of 7,000 registered voters, for an error margin of ±1.2%.

All surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews.






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  1. jeanne


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