43% disagree Pres. Arroyo intends to step down in 2010

Social Weather Stations The First Quarter 2009 Social Weather Survey, fielded over February 20-23, 2009, found that 43% of voting-age Filipinos disagree, and only 31% agree, with the statement, “Tapat si Pangulong Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sa kanyang balak na pagbaba sa pwesto sa 2010” [“President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sincerely intends to step down in 2010”]. Others (26%) are undecided about this matter. This is more skeptical than in the September 29-October 4, 2008 SWS survey, which found that 39% disagreed and 33% agreed with the same test statement. Twenty-seven percent were undecided. Disagreement about the President’s sincerity rose by 11 points in Mindanao, from 30% in October 2008 to 41% in February 2009, and by 5 points in the Visayas, from 32% to 37%. It barely changed in other areas: it went from 52% to 51% in Metro Manila, and from 43% to 44% in Balance Luzon. It eased by 13 points in class ABC, from 53% to 40%, while it rose by 5 points in class D or the masa, from 38% to 43%, and by 3 points in class E, from 38% to 41%.
Survey background The First Quarter 2009 Social Weather Survey was conducted over February 20 – 23, 2009 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±6% for area percentages). The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2009 to obtain the national estimates. The survey item measuring public opinion on the sincerity of the President to step down in 2010 is not commissioned, but is done on SWS’s own initiative and released as a public service.



Who will be the next Philippine president?


As authorized by the survey sponsor, for the information of the public, Social Weather Stations is disclosing the results of a survey item on the Best Leader to Succeed Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in 2010 commissioned by Ms. Avic Amarillo in behalf of Senator Manuel Villar, Jr. in the SWS survey fielded over April 16-May 6, 2009, which were referred to in the news item, “SWS: Race narrows down to Villar, Noli, Mar”, in the June 18, 2009 issue of the Philippine Star. (Ms. Amarillo is the Media Officer of Senator Manuel Villar, Jr.)

The SWS May 2009 survey found that Senator Manny Villar, Vice-President Noli De Castro, and Senator Mar Roxas are the people’s top recommended successors to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010.

The survey question asked was, “Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 10, 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.”[Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names].

To that question, 29% named Sen. Villar, 21% named Vice-Pres. De Castro, and 18% named Sen. Roxas.

They were followed by Sen. Francis Escudero (15%), Sen. Loren Legarda (14%), former Pres. Joseph Estrada (13%), and Sen. Panfilo Lacson (12%).

No list of names was provided to prompt the respondents.

The survey found that 2% mentioned Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay and Pres. Gloria Arroyo, while 1% mentioned Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Sen. Richard Gordon, Sen. Francis Pangilinan, and MMDA Chairperson Bayani Fernando.

One out of five (20%) could not give an answer, and 9% had no one to recommend.

Compared to February 2009, the mentions rose by 3 points for Sen. Villar and Sen. Roxas, by 2 points for Pres. Arroyo, and by 1 point for Mayor Binay.

The mentions went down by 11 points for Sen. Legarda, by 8 points for Sen. Escudero, by 6 points for Vice-Pres. De Castro, by 3 points for Sen. Defensor-Santiago, by 2 points for Sen. Lacson, and by 1 point for Sen. Estrada and Sen. Revilla.

The question wording has been exactly the same in the past eight surveys shown in Table 1.

Survey Background

The surveys of September and December 2007, March and June 2008, and February 2009 had sample sizes of 1,200 adults, for error margins of ±3%. The September and December 2008 surveys had sample sizes of 1,500 adults, for error margins of ±2.5%. The April 16-May 6 survey had a sample size of 7,000 registered voters, for an error margin of ±1.2%.

All surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews.